{"id":1333,"date":"2026-05-29T22:08:08","date_gmt":"2026-05-29T22:08:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/southfloridamovingguides.com\/?p=1333"},"modified":"2026-05-29T22:08:08","modified_gmt":"2026-05-29T22:08:08","slug":"us-likely-to-tread-lightly-with-any-cuba-military-conflict-analysts-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/southfloridamovingguides.com\/?p=1333","title":{"rendered":"US likely to \u2018tread lightly\u2019 with any Cuba military conflict, analysts say"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

MIAMI \u2014 As high-stakes talks between the U.S. and Cuba appear to stall, U.S. leaders continue to make the case for intervention while leaders on the communist island say they are prepared to defend themselves should the U.S. strike.<\/p>\n

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While analysts say the Cuban military is no match for U.S. forces, they also say Washington may be trying to tread lightly.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur military capabilities, as we have seen, even in Iran and other places, are very strong,\u201d Local 10 Cuba Analyst Andy Gomez said.<\/p>\n

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If the U.S. is weighing military intervention in Cuba, Gomez said the Cuban armed forces are weak.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey have 30 airplanes, about 3,000 … you know, tanks, personnel movement, 50,000 regular soldiers. That\u2019s pretty small,\u201d Gomez said.<\/p>\n

US would face aging equipment, but possible asymmetric war<\/h3>\n

Brian Fonseca, the defense and national security research vice provost at Florida International University, said U.S. forces would initially be up against aging Soviet-era equipment.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf they were to do a smash-and-grab kind of operation, like they did with Nicolas Maduro, they would probably meet very little resistance,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

But Fonseca said if the U.S. tries to have a pronounced presence on the ground, it could be met with guerilla warfare from Castro regime loyalists.<\/p>\n

\u201cDuring the Castro period, Fidel implemented a concept called \u2018War of All the People,\u2019 in which there were pockets of militia throughout the country that were there to repel Americans if Americans were to invade Cuba,\u201d he said. \u201cI think that\u2019s the one sort of wildcard scenario the United States has to think about.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf there is a pronounced US president on the presence on the ground, does the regime have the capability to inflict pain against the United States in a more asymmetric \u2018War of All the People\u2019 context, in which you have militia located in smaller localities across the country?\u201d<\/p>\n

But if the U.S. tries a Maduro-like operation, Gomez said the country should not expect help from the top.<\/p>\n

\u201cVenezuela and Cuba are very different, because there\u2019s no Delcy Rodriguez in Cuba (who is) going to hand over Raul Castro,\u201d Gomez said. \u201cThe entire inner circle around Raul Castro are Raulistas. Everyone around Raul Castro the top generals are Raulistas. And he made sure once Fidel was dead to have Raulistas \u2015 supporters \u2015 around him. Now below that, that\u2019s another question and we have to wait and see.\u201d<\/p>\n

What happens afterward?<\/h3>\n

Fonseca said there are not a lot of certainties about what a Cuba scenario would look like.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s still unknowns as to how much or whether or not there would be a resistance to the Americans on the ground. I think that\u2019s why the United States is going to tread lightly,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s not to suggest the United States is not going to unlock the military. I think it\u2019s already signaling it\u2019s going to unlock the military, but it has to be careful it doesn\u2019t engage the Cuban people.\u201d<\/p>\n

That, Fonseca said, might bring the U.S. \u201cinto a more pronounced conflict,\u201d which he said would be a \u201cdisaster for domestic policy too, especially as we lead into the November 2026 midterms.\u201d<\/p>\n

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It comes as high-stakes talks between the U.S. and Cuba appear to stall.<\/p>\n

On Thursday, Cuba\u2019s deputy foreign affairs minister, speaking at a legislative hearing in Havana, said a mounting threat of U.S. military aggression is \u201cwithout justification,\u201d while U.S. leaders continue to make a case against Cuba.<\/p>\n

At an event at Miami Dade College on Thursday hosted by the World Affairs Council of Miami, U.S. Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Florida, said, \u201cThe desire for freedom has never disappeared\u201d among the Cuban people.<\/p>\n

The council\u2019s president, Aaron Rosen, also weighed in.<\/p>\n

\u201cCuba would not really be able to match up to the United States in a one-to-one conflict,\u201d he said. \u201cHowever, if the US and Cuba did find itself at war, and the US decimated Cuba\u2019s military it would very soon find that it inherits Cuba\u2019s political future and there are very big open questions about what that might mean and for what comes next.\u201d<\/p>\n

Can White House make case to skeptical public?<\/h3>\n

While recent polls find a majority of Cuban Americans support U.S. military intervention, nationwide surveys find Americans as a whole do not.<\/p>\n

\u201cCertainly South Floridians and Cuban Americans want to see the United States take action. They\u2019ve been waiting decades for the U.S. to approach Cuba in a more hawkish manner to displace the regime. In fact, I often argue that many of the Cuban Americans are in it for revenge,\u201d Fonseca said. \u201cThey want to see the regime fall, and that\u2019s not something that I think the rest of the nation is really interested in. It\u2019s not personal for the rest of the nation; it\u2019s personal for Cuban Americans.\u201d<\/p>\n

That means, Fonseca said, that the White House has to be \u201csomewhat careful\u201d and \u201cbuild a solid case for why Cuba is an imminent threat before they launch military intervention.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI think that\u2019s what\u2019s being laid over the last few weeks and what will likely be laid going forward. You just heard two cases in which the White House has essentially articulated Cuba as an imminent threat,\u201d he said. \u201cOne is the 300 drones, the other is the humanitarian crisis and so the White House is now beginning to lay the foundation for unlocking the military\u2019s instrument of national power, not because they need to justify it for the Cuban Americans, but for the rest of the nation.\u201d<\/p>\n

What about Russia?<\/h3>\n

With Russian President Vladimir Putin focused on empire-building and bogged down in his war in Ukraine, the analysts said it is unlikely Russia will provide boots-on-the-ground assistance to Cuba should the U.S. strike. <\/p>\n

Instead, Russia could assist the communist country through disinformation efforts or by providing goods and services to the island\u2019s regime.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile I\u2019m not deeply concerned about Russian or Chinese conventional support to Cuba, I would be concerned about Russians supporting the Cubans\u2019 ability to fight in the trenches in an asymmetric conflict, or the Russians, for example, lighting a match and then walking away,\u201d Fonseca said. \u201cIn other words, creating more instability for the United States on the ground.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey would ultimately commit the Americans more deeply on the ground in Cuba for a more pronounced time, dealing with maybe civil unrest and some other things that I think the Russians could probably unlock, that would be a pain for the United States to deal with.\u201d<\/p>\n

Gomez also believes Russia probably will not help Cuba on the ground, but said it is critical to the U.S. that it not give the Cubans the military base at Guantanamo Bay.<\/p>\n

\u201cBecause I have no doubt that in 30 days you\u2019re going to see Chinese ships and Russian ships at that base,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

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As high-stakes talks between the U.S. and Cuba appear to stall, U.S. leaders continue to make the case for intervention while leaders on the communist island say they are prepared to defend themselves should the U.S. strike.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1332,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1333","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\nUS likely to \u2018tread lightly\u2019 with any Cuba military conflict, analysts say - South Florida Moving Guides<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/southfloridamovingguides.com\/?p=1333\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US likely to \u2018tread lightly\u2019 with any Cuba military conflict, analysts say - 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